<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"><channel><title>Jeff Bailey | Estimation</title><link>https://jeffbailey.us/categories/estimation/</link><description>This website contains learning resources, opinions, and facts about software-related technology.</description><language>en</language><generator>Hugo</generator><atom:link href="https://jeffbailey.us/categories/estimation/rss.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><lastBuildDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate><item><title>What Is the Hourglass of Uncertainty?</title><link>https://jeffbailey.us/blog/2026/05/20/what-is-the-hourglass-of-uncertainty/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://jeffbailey.us/blog/2026/05/20/what-is-the-hourglass-of-uncertainty/</guid><pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><dc:creator>Jeff Bailey</dc:creator><category>Software Engineering</category><category>Estimation</category><category>Project Management</category><description><![CDATA[<h2 id="the-pattern">The pattern</h2>
<p>The team is three weeks away from shipping. The demo went well. Estimates are tight. Velocity is trending up. The product manager is drafting the launch email.</p>
<p>Then the integration tests hit, the third-party API rate-limits at production volume, a database query takes four seconds instead of two, a security review finds an authentication gap, and the analytics team sees a schema mismatch.</p>
<p>Three weeks become three months.</p>]]></description></item></channel></rss>